:: your online investment channel. :: your online investment channel. :: your online investment channel.
Home | About us | Contact us | Recommend this site | Suggestion Box
Latest Statistics:
NSE Index: 5,005.14 (down by 29.41 points)    |     Housing Finance Co - 29.75    |     Mumias Sugar Co. - 42.75    |     Jubilee Insurance Co. - 200.00    |     Standard Group - 50.50    |     Eveready East Africa - 6.90    |     Sameer Africa - 11.00    |     Crown Berger - 44.00    |     Standard Chartered Bank - 185.00    |     Marshalls (E.A.) - 36.50    |     National Bank of Kenya - 38.75    |     Athi River Mining - 91.00    |     Kenya Re-Insurance Corporation - 15.20    |     Unga Group - 13.10    |     British American Tobacco Kenya - 140.00    |     TPS Eastern Africa - 77.50    |     Bamburi Cement - 189.00    |     Olympia Capital Holdings - 15.30    |     C.F.C Bank - 128.00    |     Kenya Oil Co - 107.00    |     Nation Media Group - 287.00    |     Barclays Bank - 71.00    |     City Trust - 165.00    |     AccessKenya Group - 17.30    |     Rea Vipingo Plantations - 20.00    |     E.A.Portland Cement - 126.00    |     NIC Bank - 157.00    |     I.C.D.C Investments Co - 25.75    |     Diamond Trust Bank Kenya - 89.00    |     Total Kenya - 27.50    |     Kenya Airways - 62.00    |     ScanGroup - 25.50    |     Kakuzi - 30.00    |    
Home Analysis
Discussion forum
| go to stock | view top contributors | back to forum
Post new topic | Post reply | Report Abuse!
Topic: facts and figures don't lie updated version - msafiri  [71 views | 2 replies]
Monday, October 29, 2007 20:38

Figures and facts don't lie...

In Kenya,you need to win 25% of 5/8 of all the provinces alongside the popular vote. Going by the polls so far,both of the leading candidates will get the mandatory 25% in 5 provinces.

This election will be close but Raila will definitely triumph.

To begin with,I'll make three assumptions which will set the context in which the elections will be held;

1. Kalonzo joins ODM. Kibaki's goose is cooked.....

2. Kalonzo joins PNU. Were it to happen,Kibaki will still lose.
3. Things remain the way they are. THIS IS THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO.

So,what happens then?

In 2002,the turnout was about 56%. There were 10 million registered voters and about 5.6 million valid votes cast.

According to the ECK,there are 14.2 million Registered voters today. Assuming that there'll be a heavy turnout,let's say 70%,and further assuming that all votes will be valid,there'll be about 10 million votes for the three presidential candidates.

Let me also say something else. Kenya's voting is tribal. It is just true and my prediction will have some of this tribal nonsense because that is how we vote.

Here we go: I'll begin by giving a prediction of each candidate’s base and then work outwords.

Raila Odinga has the Western Alliance i.e Luo,Kalenjin and Luhyas,Kalonzo has the Kamba and Kibaki has GEMA.

Raila will get about 1.5 million Luo votes,1.5 Million Kalenjin Votes and 1 Million Luhya Votes. (Kalenjin and Luhya votes are more than 1.5 & 1 million respectively  but I have reduced the number to reflect that not 100% of these will go to Raila)

Kalonzo will get 850,000 Kamba votes
Kibaki will get 3 million GEMA votes

Out of a total of 10 million total votes,they amass 7.85 million votes from their strongholds leaving 2.15 million votes.

The 2.15 million votes from places other than their own bases will go like this:

Kalonzo will get 150,000.

KALONZO’s TOTAL PRESIDENTIAL VOTES WILL AMOUNT TO 1,000,000 VOTES or 10% of total votes cast.

That leaves 2 million votes for Raila and Kibaki.

To use the latest Consumer Insight polls,I'll give Kibaki 42% of the total votes. Infact,I'll be generous and give him 70% of the remaining votes.

70% of 2 million votes is 1.4 million.
Therefore,Kibaki gets a total of 4.4 million total votes.

Total valid votes cast: 10 million.
Kalonzo’s Total votes: 1 Million

Raila's Total votes 4.6 million.

Raila Wins!!!

Raila Odinga: ..........................4.6 million

Mwai Kibaki:........................... 4.4 million

Kalonzo Musyoka............... ..... 1 million

Total valid votes cast................. 10 million


Kibaki will do much better than the polls are showing at the moment but still lose!


1. I gave Raila 1.5 million Kalenjin votes. That is a very conservative vote by the way as there at least 2 million registered Kalenjin votes.  The GEMA votes are not as many as most people think,as the other tribes have been growing in numbers at a faster pace.

2.The number of registered voters in Nyanza is almost the same as in Central,and this time the turnover will be high in Nyanza for the first time considering what is at stake. Central province had the highest voter turnout in 2002. In 2007 Nyanza will have a similarly high voter turnout. The voter turnout in Western will also increase considerably.

3. Almost 500,000 of potential GEMA voters are in the diaspora. 90% of these will not travel back to Kenya to vote. This has not been factored in the figures above.


How do you rate this topic? You need to be logged in to rate this topic.
Average rating: This topic has not yet been rated
Sort replies by:
sirikwa [msafiri]
Monday, October 29, 2007 21:35

You're right,I had got the number of Kalenjin votes wrong. See updated post.

An investment in knowledge pays the best interest. Benjamin Franklin
Lying Figures [Sirikwa]
Monday, October 29, 2007 21:17

Your figures seem to lie based on my elementary maths. From your figures,Raila will get 1.5 (Luo)+1.0(Kal)+1.0(Luh)+0.98(others) = 3.98m!!! Kibaki and Kalonzo calculated correctly at 4.12m and .9m

So then who is the winner?  please use right figures to justify your claims


Discussion forum
Post new topic | More discussions
discussion forum policies (general discussion) [11]
stocks discussions
is ea cable is in the buy (eacabl) [4]
is kenya airways a good buy at 65? (kenair) [14]
share price after dividend,bonus (msc) [9]
here to finish others (bbk) [8]
rights (nic) [21]
other discussions
facts and figures don't lie updated version [3]
stocks kenya...anti kikuyu [13]
which mps should be sent packing and why? [12]
livondo [13]
meru violence [15]
safaricom ipo [29]
SK Discussion RSS  SK Discussion Forum RSS Feed | Learn more
Post new topic | More discussions
My Watch List
Please login in order to view/ update your watch list. If you don't have a login account, you may register for free! Once you login, click here to view your watch list.

(c) 2007 | Disclaimer | Privacy Policy | Terms of Use | Make this your homepage

NOTE: Website best viewed with a resolution of at least 800*600 (using Internet Explorer 6.0 or later/ Mozilla Firefox)