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Topic: Safcom Allocation! - Richie  [1,836 views | 15 replies]
Monday, May 12, 2008 13:57
Has any reliable information on this subject received
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Time to buy [jerry]
Tuesday, May 13, 2008 19:53

Boro; I agree it's time to buy and not just the financials but even EVRDY!. The refunds will eventualy trickle to virtually all stocks. On the specifics one should use his/her gut feeling. I'm placing an order for Mumias at 11/= tomorrow.  

Ecs 11.2 Give portions to seven,yes to eight,for you do not know what disaster may come upon the land.
Safcom [boro]
Tuesday, May 13, 2008 14:46

If local investors will get about 33% allocation,it meas 66% will be refund to investors. If 50% of refund is brought back to secondary market then the shares demand will rise and the price. Then buy shares now and sell during the refund time. You will not go wrong if you invest in financial counter.

Safcom Allocation! [KulaRaha]
Tuesday, May 13, 2008 14:13

Locals did more than 20B folks,sources at the receiving bank say they have received staggering amounts,100B+. This is money remitted to receiving bank i.e. non-QII applications.

This can be further backed up with the following:

  1. Equity Bank did 15B in retail loans
  2. CFC Financial services did 9B in applications,even if you take 50% as retail that is 4.5B
  3. Various mid-tier banks did 5B each in retail applications,say 5 banks
  4. etc etc etc

QIIs make up the balance...

Business opportunities are like buses,there's always another one coming
Safcom Allocation! [sokomjinga]
Tuesday, May 13, 2008 14:00

@ Albertross

We are on the same wavelength.

If we take Sh 20b as having been the local retail investor's ("individuals") subscription,then your figure of 65% allocation is not far from the truth. This is fact.

Do not wait to be told. Seek and you will find ...
Category. [albertross]
Tuesday, May 13, 2008 12:16

@ Sokomjinga,you getting warm.
Allocations are going to be by category,we (local individual investors) are not going to be lumped together with QII's and foreigners.
By informant tells me that according to D&B,locals managed to raise around shs20b give or take a b or two. So if we go by that do the math.
Maybe I should add a caveat,this is not 100% accurate,nothing ever is,but I think I am not too far off the mark.

Thinking is THINK!!
Local Investor [sokomjinga]
Tuesday, May 13, 2008 11:00

The Local Investors = All Individuals + Safcom Employeees + Safcom Agents + Local QII applied for shares worth KSh. 115 billion. This is the collective figure we have.

Each of the above groups will have a different degree of oversubscription,so unless we know how much each group subscribed,we cannot calculate allocations,at least not now.

Do not wait to be told. Seek and you will find ...
Local Investor [sokomjinga]
Tuesday, May 13, 2008 10:53

Do not wait to be told. Seek and you will find ...
Safcom Allocation! [jmichi]
Monday, May 12, 2008 23:38

report indicated that safcom was bought by 1.6M and later said that 750,000 subscribed 115B! Does it mean they r yet to process another 800k a/c's?if its only 750,00 pple who bought,then i guess pple myt 1st get minimum &remaider; on pro rata. 750k*2k=1.5B SHARES. then the rest on prorata which lie btw 30-40%. if 1.6M pple then only prorata can hold afta crawl back 8b*5=40b 115b/40=2.9tyms subscriptn about 3tyms thus 100%/3=33% allocation
Safcom Allocation! [PONDI]
Monday, May 12, 2008 17:36

ectasy you are right on the money. plus DB have already hinted and told us to expect around 30%. that 65% allocation can only happen if either govt decides to offload more of its share holding which would mean cabinet has to approve,and we know that wont happen. they are still "bonding" and are yet to officially meet. ok i digress kidogo,why are cabinet members bonding yet its the same old faces that have been in cabinet before?? michuki knows raila who know dalmas who know kajwang etc etc...these guys are playing with us
My Estimate [ecstacy]
Monday, May 12, 2008 16:44

Someone work with me,

The govt. is seeking Ksh. 32.5B from the local retail segment.

Add the clawback of 15% shares from shares reserved for foreigners and we'll have shares worth around Ksh. 35Billion available for allocation to locals.

The locals have applied for shares close to Ksh. 115Billion.

"With regard to the local tranche of the transaction,initial indications suggest that more than 750,000 applicants participated in the IPO generating almost 115 billion shillings in local demand," the statement said.

Given the above,this cannot translate to anywhere close to 65% allocation.

Doesn't this translate to 330% subscription?
Locals will have applied for shares 3.3 times what was reserved for them.

I project 30.5% allocation.

Anyone else to give this a try.

There is no path to peace. Peace is the path.
Albertoss [Sober]
Monday, May 12, 2008 16:23

Which pool are you talking about? Tell me its the local individual.

the more things change,the more they remain the same.
Safcom Allocation! [PONDI]
Monday, May 12, 2008 16:22

DB indicated 30 - 35% and they are the lead advisors....
Safcom Allocation! [ikonini]
Monday, May 12, 2008 16:16


Need you to confirm with your authority .......that figure is staggering given the

withstanding over subscription.

`THE EASIEST WAY TO EARN MONEY ………………… IS THE HARDEST WAY` (QUOTE: Kularaha-Chairman SK Investment Co.)
Info!! [albertross]
Monday, May 12, 2008 16:02

I have it on good authority it could be as much as 65%.

Thinking is THINK!!
Safcom Allocation! [ecstacy]
Monday, May 12, 2008 14:01

It's been projected at 30-35% for retail section.  I project 30.5%.  Anyone with authoritative figures?

There is no path to peace. Peace is the path.
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