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NSE Index: 4,855.36 (up by 20.1 points)    |     Sameer Africa - 11.00    |     Olympia Capital Holdings - 13.40    |     Mumias Sugar Co. - 11.30    |     Eveready East Africa - 6.90    |     Sasini Tea & Coffee - 14.10    |     CMC Holdings - 14.25    |     TPS Eastern Africa - 70.00    |     Express - 21.00    |     Athi River Mining - 89.00    |     Centum Investment Company 0.50 - 25.00    |     Housing Finance Co - 37.50    |     Diamond Trust Bank Kenya - 82.00    |     Bamburi Cement - 187.00    |     Kenya Re-Insurance Corporation - 13.90    |     Nation Media Group - 320.00    |     East African Breweries - 155.00    |     E.A.Cables - 37.50    |     NIC Bank - 52.50    |     Kenya Airways - 52.00    |     Kenya Commercial Bank - 25.75    |     Total Kenya - 30.25    |     Kenya Oil Co - 90.00    |     National Bank of Kenya - 42.50    |     C.F.C Bank - 111.00    |     Kenya Power & Lighting - 202.00    |     Crown Berger - 40.25    |    
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Topic: The writing is on the wall,mkt headed south - Sober  [1,579 views | 9 replies]
Monday, January 28, 2008 19:31
My fellow SK,av alwez considered total kenya to weigh the trend at th market. Now that it has moved to the below Ksh30 region,that should be telling us something because or what do you have to say? I say this coz this is a company with close to 70% shares owned by foreigners,meaning there is nothing like 'selling off'
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@GS ask/bid price&size; [pm]
Thursday, January 31, 2008 18:16

@GS,muchas gracias ... & enjoy the rest of the week.

Wish SK would expand streaming quotes to show bid/ask w/price&size

NSE ndume
@PM [GeorgeSoros]
Thursday, January 31, 2008 10:25

If you subscribe to live data feeds from the data vendors you can or alternatively you idle away at nse watching the electronic board..otherwise the Brokers and CMA have all the details.
The writing is on the wall,mkt headed south [pm]
Wednesday, January 30, 2008 19:08

@GS,a brilliant analysis of NSE,I also understand foreign investors are exiting NSE & savvy locals heading for regional greener pastures,UG,BT,SA,NG etc ... the Kenya market is bound to be depressed and its dynamics will surely change,as a result,certain sectors will face tough recovery.

Personally,I think it makes sense to look at other regional markets.

BTW,can you tell me how to get bid//ask price & size at the NSE.

NSE ndume
Pump and dump or playing russian roulette with your money [GeorgeSoros]
Wednesday, January 30, 2008 15:28

This is the environment where treacherous brokers work best. Just because some reps were named by the warring party,brokers are going to push a few counters up (by 'pretending' to bid higher for few shares. In stock jargon its called 'pumping and dumping'. The Index may rise marginally today but nobody should feel tempted to buy because its artificial.
Even If stalemate is resolved within one month there will be a slight recovery based on perceptions (or optimism),but we all know that most companies will not recover within the year.Th rosy ratios (p/e and stuff) are all functions of market prices so they are bound to reduce.

The bond market is also uncertain since the main buyers are institutions who tend to invest their extra ordinary profits (or excess funds). I wonder who will be talking of excess funds in future,except a few gun-runners and drug dealers.

Banks may have to grapple with non-performing loans. Non-collateralized loans especially in RV and Western Kenya are likely to be unrepaid,while the collateral has lost value.

Some example will suffice


1. TPS Serena (a listed company at the NSE) - The tourist sector cannot recover this year. Tourism is an extremely sensitive service,notwithstanding the alternative destinations available. Tourists are not going back home to wait for Kenya to normalize and then come back! We must also understand that the impasse is not something that will be resolved in a day or two. Travel advisories are likely to bite for a long time. With boycotts even local tourism is likely to be in in shreds.


2. Bamburi Cement Company (also listed) - Who in his right senses would be going on with a new plant in Rift Valley,Nyanza,Coast areas even if it was in its strategic plan. What does the devalued currency mean for this industry (exchange loss). How will the cement  and building inputs transported across the highways to Western Kenya and the rest of Africa (given insecurity and delapidated infrastructure)? Will Southern Sudan continue importing Kenyabn cement?

3. UNGA Ltd.- Note that the national 'bread basket' is already in shambles. Without the registered owners to the farms,who will supply seeds,fertilizer and pesticides on loan? Can you trust a person who has taken over land to farm as well as the previous farmer?Isn't it obvious that maize production will fall? Who will supply UNGA? Will they import unmilled maize,wheat etc?

4. HFCK (listed on the NSE)- Is there a likelihood of rent default in mortgaged houses. Now that most businessmen and employees alike have realized losses (which are likely to continue for a long spell),how are they going to pay for their mortgages.If they default,what will happen to HFCK share price? If houses under mortgage have been destroyed how will HFCK recover its collateral?


5. Sasini Tea Company(listed on the NSE)
If the EU imposes an embargo,will Sasini be able to export its high valued,high priced tea? Will there be enough tea pickers on the farm. Could someone actually decide to set a tea estate on fire?

There is enough justifications for the individual company's shares to decline by the maximum limit of 10% (daily) until the post election issues are resolved. The tourism sector is sure to collapse so Idon't see why TPS Serena shares should not fall to par value in the long run.

Investors are currently selling to minimize losses rather than to maximize profits. In a few weeks time investors will still want to sell but no one will be interested in buying. Offers will go even lower as sellers become desperate.

When high valued stocks like EABL and MMG come tumbling down as the market becomes bearish,investors can lose upto Kshs 30 per share per day. Even Kengen will not necessarily go up because most companies in the manufacturing sector particularly(which is a huge consumer of poer) are operating at half-capacity.

Ceteris peribus,with time,the NSE will have no choice but to suspend trading in some counters,creating even more panic.

IPOs will have to be suspended (remember the KenGen IPO suspended last year because the market was bearish). If privatizations go on,there will be no guarantee of success in a failing market,except if there is a chance of the country getting to normal business again.

I guess even the stags who buy when prices are falling with the hope of making capital gains when the market correct itself in the future,will have to wait until the index touches the 'psychological' 3000 mark (trough).

This is the time you will ask for your CDSC account statement and the broker will start dilly-dallying (having sold your shares) to meet operational costs.
Sokoni [reithi]
Wednesday, January 30, 2008 14:58

Even in adversity,there are opportunities out there. Based on fundamentals and future prospects (even with the turmoil continuing),there are counters with discounted prices. Besides,the rise and drop in prices in the last couple of weeks has created opportunities for quick returns.

The writing is on the wall,mkt headed south [m.Bulls]
Wednesday, January 30, 2008 13:34

GS you are the last person i should trust to predict the market on my behalf.Thank God i did not atleast do that yesterday.The trend is up today.Plse continue predicting wicked occurences as usual and leave stocks alone.
dont use total [mukwano]
Wednesday, January 30, 2008 13:01

This is one of the most illiquid shares on the market.  Bumper profit,cut throat loss it will still move a bob either way.

The reason is the the owners are few and they give themselves huge divided,whatever happens.

Its a lousy marker for NSE trends

The writing is on the wall,mkt headed south [GeorgeSoros]
Wednesday, January 30, 2008 10:15

Just look at yesterday's bids vs supply available. for example,demand for Access Kenya shares was at 56,000 while the supply came in at 733,900 shares. Meaning that for those sellers to get their sale orderes excecuted,prices will have to tumble.

This isn't time to buy shares unless...
The writing is on the wall [RichKing]
Tuesday, January 29, 2008 12:25

I agree. This share has been one of the most stable for a very long time.

“Hell hath no fury like Peace loving Kenyans robbed.”
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